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Touchdown probability rankings

Players are ranked using the probability produced by our trained model when that value is available. These are estimates, not guarantees or betting advice.

How the model works

The current trained model uses recent carries, targets, goal-line opportunities and red-zone opportunities to estimate a player's chance of scoring a touchdown in a game.

Important limitation: the current model does not yet fully adjust probabilities for the selected opponent, weather or projected game flow. Selecting a matchup filters the players shown; it does not automatically mean the model has calculated a unique probability for that matchup.

Our next model improvements will add matchup context, weather and game-flow features, followed by historical backtesting to measure accuracy.