NFL Touchdown Prediction & Player Analytics
DATA-DRIVEN · EXPERIMENTAL

Game Center

Choose a scheduled game to view player predictions, recent usage, team trends, and available opponent defensive statistics.

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SELECTED MATCHUP
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PLAYERS RANKED
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MODEL DATA THROUGH
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Touchdown Rankings

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Ranked by the model's estimated touchdown probability. Tap Why? beside any player to inspect available usage, team trends, and opponent defensive statistics. A ranking is not a guarantee of a touchdown.

Recent carries Recent targets Goal-line opportunities Red-zone opportunities Opponent defense
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How TDPM evaluates a player

The current trained model uses 14 features: recent player carries, targets, goal-line opportunities, red-zone opportunities, team rushing and passing attempts, team touchdowns, team red-zone touchdown rate, opponent rushing and passing yards allowed, opponent rushing and passing touchdowns allowed, opponent red-zone touchdown rate, and opponent third-down conversion rate.

What the explanation means: the expandable player analysis shows relevant input statistics. It does not yet calculate how much each individual feature changed that player's probability. That requires a separate model-contribution analysis.

Matchup selection: the selected game filters the players and identifies their scheduled opponent. The underlying prediction probabilities are generated before this selection and are not recalculated for each selected game.

Advanced analysis — planned

Weather and stadium conditions, projected game flow, betting-market totals and spreads, individual cornerback assignments, defensive-player performance, coverage tendencies, blitz and pressure data, and defensive personnel matchups are not currently active features. These will require reliable data sources, appropriate pregame timing, and historical validation before being presented as active model inputs.